Charlie Munger: 24 (22) causes of human misjudgment

List of key bias per Munger:
Where a “cognitive bias is a systematic pattern of deviation from norm or rationality in judgment. Individuals create their own “subjective reality” from their perception of the input”

Video of full speech: 1hr16m (Youtube)

Transcript (www.fs.blog)

  1. Under recognition of incentives (reinforcement)
  2. Psychological denial
  3. Incentive-cause bias, “agency costs
  4. Bias from consistency and commitment tendency
  5. Bias from Pavlovian association
  6. Bias from reciprocation tendency
    • “What you do will change what you think”
  7. Bias from over influence of social proof
  8. Elegant math
    • ”Better to be roughly right than precisely wrong” – John Maynard Keynes
  9. Bias from contrast caused distortions of sensation, perception and cognition
    • ”Cognition mimics sensation”
  10. Bias from over-influence by authority
  11. Bias from deprival, super-reaction syndrome – including threatened removal of something almost possessed
  12. Bias from envy/jealousy
    • “It’s not greed that drives the world but envy” – Warren Buffet
  13. Bias from chemical dependency
    • “The tendency to distort reality so that it’s endurable”
  14. Bias from mis-gambling compulsion
  15. Bias from liking distortion (reciprocal: disliking distortion)
  16. Bias from non-mathematical nature of the human brain… tendency to overweigh conveniently available information
    • ”All the things on this list distort judgement”
  17. Bias from over-influence by vivid evidence
  18. Mental confusion caused by information not arrayed in the mind and theory structures, creating sound generalizations developed in response to the question “Why
    • “If you want to persuade someone tell them the “Why”
  19. Normal limitations of sensation, memory, cognition and knowledge
  20. Stress-induced mental changes
  21. Mental illness and decline
  22. Organizational confusion from say-something syndrome
    • “All of humanity’s problems stem from man’s inability to sit quietly in a room alone.” Blaise Pascal

On a story told…

In her secret garden I lay,
wishing she would say
Of the ancient story, 
When Israel’s glory 
Was to Egypt sold. 

The story she told,
 of a vibrant  luxurious coat,
Soaked in the  blood of a goat
And of a father’s heart broken
With naught but a crimson token. 

On Genesis we reflected 
And of the covenant rejected,
Wondering if we would have made
The choice for knowledge forbade, 
While in the secret garden I laid. 

The Initiations Of Orpheus: To Musæus and Hecate

From Thomas Taylor’s translation of The Orphic Hymns (1792)

To Musæus
Attend Musæus to my sacred song
And learn what rites to sacrifice belong.
Jove (Zeus) I envoke, the earth (Gaia), and solar light (Helios),
The moon’s (Mene) pure splendor, and the stars of night;
Thee Neptune (Poseidon), ruler of sea profound,
Dark-hair’d, whose waves begirt the solid ground;
Ceres (Demeter) abundant, and of lovely mien,
And Proserpine (Persephone) infernal Pluto’s (Hades) queen;
The huntress Dian (Artemis), and bright Phœbus (Apollo) rays,
Far-darting God, the theme Delphic praise;
And Bacchus (Dionysos) , honur’d by the heav’nly choir, 
And raging Mars (Ares) , and Vulcan (Hephaestus)  god of fire;
The mighty pow’r who from foam to light,
And Pluto (Hades)  potent in the realms of night;
With Hebe young, and Hercules the strong,
And to whom the care of births belong;
Justice and Piety august I call,
And much-fam’d nymphs, and Pan the god of all.
To Juno ( Hera) sacred, and to Mem’ry (Mnemosyne) fair,
And the chaste Muses (Mousai) I address my pray’r;
The various year, the Graces and the Hours,
Fair-haired Latona (Leto), and Dione’s pow’rs;
Armed Curetes (Kouretes) household Gods I call,
With those who spring from Jove the king of all;
Th’ Idæn Gods (Olympians), the angel of the skies,
And righteous Themis, with sagacious eyes;
With ancient night, and day-light I implore,
And Faith, and Justice dealing right I adore;
Saturn (Cronus) and Rhea, and great Thetis too,
Hid in a veil of bright celestial blue:
I call great Ocean, and the beauteous train
Of nymphs, who dwell in chambers of the main;
Atlas the strong, and ever in its prime,
Vig’rous Eternity (Aeon) and endless Time (Chronos);
The Stygian (Styx) pool, and placid Gods beside,
And various Genii (daemon),  that o’er men preside;
Illustrious Providence, the noble train
Of dæmon forms, who fill th’ ætherial plain;
Or live in air, in water, earth, or fire,
Or deep beneath the solid ground retire.
Bacchus (Dionysos) and Semele the friends of all,
And white Leucothea of the sea I call;
Palæmon bounteous, and Adrastria great,
And sweet-tongu’d Victory (Nike), with success elate;
Great Esculapius (Asklepios), skill’d to cure disease,
And dread Minerva (Pallas), whom fierce battles please;
Thunder and winds in mighty columns pent,
With dreadful roaring struggling hard for vent;
Attis, the mother of the pow’rs on high,
And fair Adonis, never doom’d to die,
End and beginning he is all to all,
These with propitious aid I gently call;
And to my holy sacrifice invite,
To Hecate
The pow’r who reigns in deepest hell and night;
I call Einodian Hecate, lovely dame, 
Of earthly, wat’ry, and celestial frame,
Sepulchral, in saffron veil array’d,
Pleas’d with dark ghosts that wander thro’ the shade;
Persian, unconquerable huntress hail!
The world’s key-bearer never doom’d to fail;
On the rough rock to wander thee delights, 
Leader and nurse be present to our rites; 
Propitious grant our just desires success,
Accept our homage, and the incense bless . 
Hecate of heaven, earth, and sea. Guardian of where three meet.

“Judgment Night“ (soundtrack) a review and an incomplete history of the rap-rock genre

“Judgement Night” album cover

Spotify Playlist: Judgment Night… plus

The use of genres to categorize music, much like the use of taxonomy for the classification of organisms, provides a handy framework but is not without its faults. The shaky scaffolding buckles under the strain of classifying musicians  and music that defy or destroy classification with no regard for external constraints. 

Those of us coming of age before the commercialization of the internet, in that twilight period when the tape cassette passed into shadow and the CD ascended , movie soundtracks served as a playlist of sorts. 

One need look no further than a Quentin Tarantino soundtrack to find some of the best playlists ever created. But where Tarantino movies are both visually and sonically part of my cultural fabric, the movie “Judgement Night” (1993) has all but faded from my visual memory banks. But the soundtrack, that is a different story.  

The “Judgement Night” soundtrack was  an experimental collaboration between rock and hip hop artist who largely kept to their overarching genre with a few exceptions.  It is one of the jewels in the crowing achievements of rap-rock  

As stated earlier tracing the lineage of any genre in music is fraught with challenges. But one of the earliest known fusions of rap and rock can be found listening to “Year of the Guru “ (1968) by Eric Burdon & the Animals. 

Over a steady bassline, Burdon does not so much sing but speak his lyrics :

Now here I sit in a state-run asylum
Limitless, friendless but much more together
I decided to do some good book readin’
About the art of people leadin’

The following year The Stooges released their debut single “I wanna be your dog” off of their self-titled debut album. The song features Iggy Pop as he walks the narrow line between traditional singing and the rhythmic speech delivery that defines rap:

And now I’m ready to close my eyes
And now I’m ready to close my mind
And now I’m ready to feel your hand
And lose my heart on the burning sand

The Stooges contribution to the rap-rock hybrid are arguably minimal  but they were part of the burgeoning  garage-rock/protopunk scene and they along with their peers  (The Velvet Underground,  The New York Dolls, MC5, The Sonics ) undeniably pushed rock  toward more experimentation, smashing rock into its fundamentals components and ushering the eventual emergence of punk. 

Punk and early rap shared a common ethos that of being raw, emotional, and honest.  Music was the weapon of choice for the masses and it was more accessible then many had realized.   

 Rap would appear in New Wave with songs like “Crosseyed and Painless” by the Talking Heads and in the Post Punk scene in “Wedding Song” by The Psychedelic Furs.  The hard rock band Kiss would use rap in “All hell’s breaking loose.”

Meanwhile hip-hop artist were experimenting with rock in rap. The year 1984  smashed the walls of genre-binding with the release  of  Run-DMC’s “Rock Box” which utilized  rock infused guitar rifts. The Beastie Boys dropped “Rock Hard” sampling AC/DC’s “Back in Black.” LL Cool Jay went heavy, merging hard rock with his lyrics and scratch.  That year also saw The Red Hot Chili Peppers release their debut self-titled album, they would go on to push the rap-rock envelope infused with funk in subsequent releases.   

The following year, 1985, an Aerosmith and Run-DMC collaboration, “Walk This Way,” essentially a rerelease of an Aerosmith song , exploded into the mainstream. It is considered the first rap-rock song to reach the “top ten” of the Billboards. 

From there,  Sugar Ray would merge rap-rock with nu-metal on several songs and collaborations. The sound would fuse with thrash-metal  in “I’m the man” (1997) by Anthrax. 

On the rap-front Public Enemy were dropping anthems of the genre with “Bring the Noise” and “She Watches Channel Zero” On “Bring The Noise” Flavor Flav and the crunch of heavy guitar and driving drums, provided by Anthrax, promise to bring the noise and Chuck D does so with some of the slickest delivery regardless of genre:

Never badder than bad cause the brother is madder than mad
At the fact that's corrupt as a senator
Soul on a roll, but you treat it like soap on a rope
Cause the beats and the lines are so dope
Listen for lessons I'm saying inside 
Music that the critics are blasting me for
They'll never care for the brothers and sisters 
Mow, cause the country has us up for the war

The tag-team battle-royal raged, and the alternative metal band Faith No More (which “paved the way for Nirvana” according to Nirvana’s own bassist Krist Novoselic) pushed the sound even further . 

And then Rage Against The Machine dropped their bombshell, their self-titled debut (1992). Fronted by poet and activist Zack de la Rocha, Rage pushed the sound even further but also inherited the raging rebellious spirit  opposing oppression from which rap had emerged. rap-rock categorically declared itself as a force to reckon with. And it manifested as sonic energy in songs like “Take The Power Back” by Rage Against the Machine:

Step back, I know who I am
Raise up your ear, I’ll drop the style and clear
It’s the beats and the lyrics they fear
The rage is relentless
We need a movement with a quickness
You are the witness of change
And to counteract
We gotta take the power back

And so we have come full circle and back to “Judgment Night.” Rage collaborated with the metal band Tool for the soundtrack and produced “Can’t Kill the Revolution.” Unfortunately, the song  fell short of the expectations  from both bands and was never officially released. 

But what we did get was an album of historical significance in rap-rock, rock and rap. The album itself broke through the top 20 on the Billboard 200  and four singles were released .  And at the heart of the genre (rap-rock), at the heart of the album “Judgment Night” and at the heart of the song “Judgment Night” by Biohazard and Onyx. Perfect summation:

Onyx! Watch me wreck shit as they exit
But yo I keep em hollerin', screamin' out for mercy
Minds of a lowest of enemies, ghetto mentality
So blast it as I hit your head you're dead not disbelievin'
Got the toxic rock, to bring a nigga biohazard!

As warned this is an incomplete history but we cannot close without acknowledging the contributions of the genius producer Rick Rubin, not only to this genre but modern music production in general.

You can hear many of the songs and albums discussed below:

Spotify Playlist: Judgment Night… plus

Beastie Boys – Rock Hard (Youtube)

Tool & Rage Against The Machine – Revolution (2014 Remastered) (Youtube)

“Judgment Night” tracks:

No.TitleArtist / PerformerLength
1.Just Another VictimHelmet and House of Pain4:23
2.Fallin’Teenage Fanclub and De La Soul4:28
3.“Me, Myself & My Microphone”Living Colourand Run DMC3:10
4.“Judgement Night”Biohazardand Onyx4:35
5.“Disorder” (Medley of 3 Exploited songs: “War”, “UK ’82”, and “Disorder”)Slayer and Ice-T4:58
6.Another Body MurderedFaith No Moreand Boo-Yaa T.R.I.B.E.4:24
7.“I Love You Mary Jane”Sonic Youthand Cypress Hill3:52
8.“Freak Momma”Mudhoneyand Sir Mix-A-Lot4:00
9.“Missing Link”Dinosaur Jr.and Del the Funky Homosapien3:59
10.“Come and Die”Therapy? and Fatal4:27
11.“Real Thing”Pearl Jam and Cypress Hill3:33

WOA: A Sailor’s Sunset (A Short)

The sound of his board slicing through the water in harmony with the sound of the wind in his sails and the feel of the boom in his hands. The currents of the ocean below, and in the wind above flowing as one with the currents in him. All powered by Phateon of the heavens above. A singular force of oneness, it seemed, propelled him forward.

The crystalline clear blue waters of the shallow sea grass and white sands below his sea-skipping board receded into the unfathomable azure of the ocean deep. Thenea ever falling below the horizon behind him.

“If I could choose my final sunset…” he thought. “… these could very well be my final hours on E’ricle.”

Tomorrow he would ascend into the heavens to take his first command of a Stellar Patrol Boat in the Space Fleet. And he sped forward as if to outrun the many voices in his head.

“Have my experiences in the surface fleet prepared me for what is to come?”

“Am I prepared to take command?”

“Were we really at war with Ced’-a-meon?“

“How could we ever think to defeating them, on their home world?”

“Are we not leaving E’ricle unprotected with so much of the fleet deployed?“

“Patrol Boats have never been deployed this deep before, what would be our ultimate assignment?”

“Could they reach us here?

“Could we lose this war?”

“Will I ever see home again?”

To calm the voices, he sped with the speed of the wind to the calmest place he knew, deep out in the ocean of his quiet mind.

With Thenea no longer in sight nor even sign of her lights and as Phateon slipped into the ocean, he slowed the boat to a still. While perfectly balanced, he sat crosslegged on his board and so drifted. Calmed.

Long into that dark night he sat. Any other would be panicked to be so far out to sea alone and without means of navigation in hand. But he knew exactly where he was. The heavens told him.

As the waxing crescent of the First Sister, called Carnas by her inhabitants, rose he wondered if he would ever see her full again.

The voices asleep, he picked up his sails and dipped them into the wind. He felt the wind fill the sails and he channeled that energy flow from his steady hands, into his arms, into his body, his legs and finally into the board as he skated over a black ocean leaving a phosphorescent wake behind.

Looking back he wondered, if he had known then what he knew now, would he have sailed back to shore that night. Or instead would he have followed his heart and sailed deeper into the blue.

As the powerless hulk of his patrol craft drifted so far from home and with no hope of rescue he knew without doubt he would never again see his beloved sapphire ocean.

He suppressed those many voices and their existential questions..

As the dead ship spun without control in the black of space he was saddened at being closer to Ced’-a-meon then to home.

Entombed in the ruins of his first command
destined for eons hence to orbit great Phateon out between the worlds, he came to peace with the thought that from here the sun would never set.

#WAR OF ASCENSION