Deeper into the blue

Companion to: A Sailor”s Sunset
Blue from Cowboy Bebop Blue
“Blue” by The Seatbelts from “Cowboy Bebop Blue” album

Lesus messiah ut, me decantus
Lesus messiah ut, me decantus
Lesus messiah ut, me decantus
Lesus messiah ut, me decantus

Never seen a bluer sky
Yeah, I can feel it reaching out
And moving closer
There's something about blue

Asked myself what it's all for
You know, the funny thing about it
I couldn't answer
No, I couldn't answer

Things have turned a deeper shade of blue
And images that might be real
Maybe illusion
Keep flashing off and on
Free
Wanna be free
Gonna be free
And move among the stars
You know, they really aren't so far
Feels so free
Gotta know free
Please
Don't wake me from the dream
It's really everything it seemed
I'm so free
No black and white in the blue

Everything is clearer now
Life is just a dream, you know
That's never-ending
I'm ascending

Veitnow: Afghanistan and the U.S.

An editorial plea to our fellow American citizens to recognize a most grievous atrocity committed in our name .

A tragic comedy of errors is unfolding and the U.S. citizen is the punchline. After twenty years of war and occupation, the total cost in lives of the war in Afghanistan (as of April 2021) is 2,448 American Service Members and 3,836 U.S. contractors (as reported by the AP and using data gathered by Harvard University’s Kennedy School and from the Brown University.)

The capital costs, based on official data  as reported by the BBC is an estimated $822bn (spent between 2001 and 2019). This estimate does not include expenses accrued in Pakistan, which the U.S. used as a base of operations during the Afghan-conflict.

And what did the U.S. secure after all this? “Guarantees and enforcement mechanisms that will prevent the use of the soil of Afghanistan by any group or individual against the security of the United States and its allies.” A grantee secured from an organization that the US does not even recognize. The ceasefire agreement refers to the other party simply as “the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan which is not recognized by the United States as a state and is known as the Taliban.”  

The U.S. tax payer will be paying for this “war” for generations to come, receiving in return a guarantee from an organization we do not recognize and are told not to trust. Does this seem right to you?  More glaringly, American families paid the ultimate price, the lives of loved ones they will never see again.

According to the Council of Foreign Relations “The [Taliban] has withstood counterinsurgency operations from the world’s most powerful security alliance, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and three U.S. administrations in a war that has killed more than 6,000 U.S. troops and contractors

After all that, it estimated that the Taliban, has between fifty-eight thousand to one-hundred thousand full-time fighters and that it is stronger now than at any point in the last twenty years. Add to that, the United Nations recently reported that the Taliban still maintains a strong alliance with al-Qaeda.

The UN further reports the Taliban still receives resources and training from al-Qaeda in exchange for protection. An estimated two hundred to five hundred al-Qaeda fighters are thought to be in Afghanistan with leaders believed to be based in regions along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.

As of this writing, the Taliban have retaken most of, and are on the verge of securing all of Afghanistan, with the terms of the ceasefire all but broken. The Taliban are stronger now than when NATO invaded.

One need look no further as to the comedy in this tragedy then to read reports concerning the Taliban’s capture of the Kunduz Airport this week. It is reported that upon overrunning the airport the Taliban seized billions of dollars in U.S. military equipment including MaxPro Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicles, ScanEagle drones and Humvees. U.S. tax dollars just went toward supplying the Taliban and possibly al-Qaeda with state of the art military equipment.

Was it all worth it?

In future essays we hope to explore that question along with several others. How did we get here? What were the true costs (sunk costs and ongoing future costs) of the war? What are the geopolitical ramifications? What will come of Afghanistan?

From Veitnow 
by Rage Against the Machine
”Terror's tha product ya push
Well I'm a truth addict, oh shit I gotta headrush
Tha sheep tremble an here come tha votes“

Praxis Thinking Supports the Principles of the Electronic Frontier Alliance

As a non-member organization we support the EFA, we believe that technology should support the intellectual freedom at the heart of a democratic society. In the digital age, that entails advancing:

Free Expression

People should be able to speak their minds to whoever will listen.

Security

Technology should be trustworthy and answer to its users.

Privacy

Technology should allow private and anonymous speech, and allow users to set their own parameters about what to share with whom.

Creativity

Technology should promote progress by allowing people to build on the ideas, creations, and inventions of others.

Access to Knowledge

Curiosity should be rewarded, not stifled.

We uphold these principles by fighting for transparency and freedom in culture, code, and law.

Charlie Munger: 24 (22) causes of human misjudgment

List of key bias per Munger:
Where a “cognitive bias is a systematic pattern of deviation from norm or rationality in judgment. Individuals create their own “subjective reality” from their perception of the input”

Video of full speech: 1hr16m (Youtube)

Transcript (www.fs.blog)

  1. Under recognition of incentives (reinforcement)
  2. Psychological denial
  3. Incentive-cause bias, “agency costs
  4. Bias from consistency and commitment tendency
  5. Bias from Pavlovian association
  6. Bias from reciprocation tendency
    • “What you do will change what you think”
  7. Bias from over influence of social proof
  8. Elegant math
    • ”Better to be roughly right than precisely wrong” – John Maynard Keynes
  9. Bias from contrast caused distortions of sensation, perception and cognition
    • ”Cognition mimics sensation”
  10. Bias from over-influence by authority
  11. Bias from deprival, super-reaction syndrome – including threatened removal of something almost possessed
  12. Bias from envy/jealousy
    • “It’s not greed that drives the world but envy” – Warren Buffet
  13. Bias from chemical dependency
    • “The tendency to distort reality so that it’s endurable”
  14. Bias from mis-gambling compulsion
  15. Bias from liking distortion (reciprocal: disliking distortion)
  16. Bias from non-mathematical nature of the human brain… tendency to overweigh conveniently available information
    • ”All the things on this list distort judgement”
  17. Bias from over-influence by vivid evidence
  18. Mental confusion caused by information not arrayed in the mind and theory structures, creating sound generalizations developed in response to the question “Why
    • “If you want to persuade someone tell them the “Why”
  19. Normal limitations of sensation, memory, cognition and knowledge
  20. Stress-induced mental changes
  21. Mental illness and decline
  22. Organizational confusion from say-something syndrome
    • “All of humanity’s problems stem from man’s inability to sit quietly in a room alone.” Blaise Pascal